Saturday’s game that pits the Troy Trojans (10-5, 3-1 Sun Belt) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (11-5, 2-2 Sun Belt) at Trojan Arena is expected to be a tight matchup based on our computer prediction, which projects a final score of 72-71 in favor of Troy. Tipoff is at 4:33 PM ET on January 11.

Based on our computer prediction, Troy is projected to cover the spread (1.5) versus Arkansas State. The two teams are projected to go under the 143.5 over/under.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 4:33 PM ET
• TV: ESPN+
• Live stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Troy, Alabama
• Venue: Trojan Arena
• Line: Troy -1.5
• Point total: 143.5
• Moneyline (to win): Troy -128, Arkansas State +104

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Troy 72, Arkansas State 71

Spread & Total Prediction for Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Pick ATS: Troy (-1.5)
• Pick OU: Under (143.5)

Troy’s record against the spread so far this season is 8-5-0, and Arkansas State’s is 6-9-0. In terms of hitting the over, games involving the Trojans are 6-7-0 and the Red Wolves are 7-8-0. The two teams average 151.9 points per game, 8.4 more points than this matchup’s total. Troy is 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its past 10 contests, while Arkansas State has gone 4-6 against the spread and 6-4 overall.

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Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans outscore opponents by 7.8 points per game (scoring 73.7 points per game to rank 229th in college basketball while allowing 65.9 per contest to rank 51st in college basketball) and have a +116 scoring differential overall.
• Troy is 101st in college basketball at 34.2 rebounds per game. That’s 6.1 more than the 28.1 its opponents average.
• Troy knocks down 6.7 three-pointers per game (281st in college basketball) at a 28.6% rate (349th in college basketball), compared to the 6.6 its opponents make while shooting 32.8% from deep.
• The Trojans rank 245th in college basketball with 93.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and 30th in college basketball defensively with 83.4 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• Troy and its opponents have been mostly even in the turnover battle. The Trojans commit 14.7 per game (349th in college basketball) and force 13.9 (49th in college basketball action).

Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves’ +119 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per game) is a result of putting up 78.2 points per game (109th in college basketball) while giving up 70.8 per contest (169th in college basketball).
• The 37.4 rebounds per game Arkansas State accumulates rank 17th in college basketball. Their opponents collect 36.4.
• Arkansas State makes 9.4 three-pointers per game (55th in college basketball), 2.6 more than its opponents. It shoots 31.5% from deep (292nd in college basketball), and its opponents are shooting 31.1%.
• Arkansas State has committed two fewer turnovers than its opponents, averaging 10.6 (87th in college basketball) while forcing 12.6 (131st in college basketball).

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