Based on our computer model, the Atlanta Falcons will beat the Kansas City Chiefs when they play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 22 (at 8:20 p.m. ET). We have a complete breakdown, regarding the point spread, total and final score, available in this article.

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With 386 yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, the Chiefs have had to lean on their 15th-ranked offense (319.5 yards per contest) to keep them competitive. The Falcons rank 24th in the NFL with 16 points per game on offense, and they rank 11th with 19.5 points surrendered per game on defense.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

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Falcons Betting Info

• The implied probability of a win by the Falcons based on the moneyline is 41.7%.
• Atlanta has won one game against the spread this season.
• The Falcons have been an underdog by 3 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• Atlanta and its opponent have not yet hit the over in 2024.
• Games involving the Falcons this year have averaged 44.5 points per game, a two-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.

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Chiefs Betting Info

• Based on this matchup’s moneyline, the Chiefs’ implied win probability is 62.3%.
• Kansas City has covered once in two chances against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
• All Kansas City games have gone over the point total this season.
• The average total for Chiefs games this season has been 47, 0.5 points higher than the total for this game.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs 2024 Scoring Insights

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