Saturday’s game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (19-7, 10-3 Sun Belt) and Troy Trojans (16-9, 9-4 Sun Belt) going head-to-head at First National Bank Arena has a projected final score of 74-69 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of Arkansas State, who is listed as a slight favorite by our model. The game will tip off at 8:00 PM ET on February 15.

According to our computer prediction, Troy is projected to cover the spread (5.5) against Arkansas State. The two sides are projected to come in below the 144.5 total.

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Arkansas State vs. Troy Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, February 15, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Jonesboro, Arkansas
• Venue: First National Bank Arena
• Line: Arkansas State -5.5
• Point total: 144.5
• Moneyline (to win): Arkansas State -230, Troy +188

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Arkansas State vs. Troy Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Arkansas State 74, Troy 69

Spread & Total Prediction for Arkansas State vs. Troy

• Pick ATS: Troy (+5.5)
• Pick OU: Under (144.5)

Arkansas State has compiled a 15-10-0 record against the spread this season, while Troy is 13-10-0. A total of 11 out of the Red Wolves’ games this season have gone over the point total, and eight of the Trojans’ games have gone over. The teams average 152.2 points per game, 7.7 more points than this matchup’s total. Arkansas State has a 9-1 record against the spread while going 8-2 overall over the past 10 games. Troy has gone 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its last 10 contests.

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Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves have a +248 scoring differential, topping opponents by 9.5 points per game. They’re putting up 79.3 points per game to rank 61st in college basketball and are giving up 69.8 per contest to rank 117th in college basketball.
• Arkansas State wins the rebound battle by 2.5 boards on average. It collects 37.3 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 34.8 per contest.
• Arkansas State makes 9.2 three-pointers per game (54th in college basketball) at a 32.5% rate (263rd in college basketball), compared to the 6.3 per game its opponents make at a 29.4% rate.
• The Red Wolves’ 96.9 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 148th in college basketball, and the 85.3 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 26th in college basketball.
• Arkansas State has committed 9.8 turnovers per game (43rd in college basketball action), 2.5 fewer than the 12.3 it forces on average (116th in college basketball).

Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans outscore opponents by 7.9 points per game (posting 72.9 points per game, 218th in college basketball, and giving up 65 per contest, 27th in college basketball) and have a +199 scoring differential.
• Troy wins the rebound battle by an average of 6.6 boards. It pulls down 34.7 rebounds per game (57th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 28.1.
• Troy makes 7.7 three-pointers per game (176th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 6.9. It shoots 30% from deep, and its opponents shoot 32.8%.
• Troy and its opponents have been mostly even in the turnover battle. The Trojans commit 13.6 per game (337th in college basketball) and force 13.5 (45th in college basketball).

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